[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211820 
SCZ000-GAZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211820Z - 212015Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SERN GA INTO CNTRL/ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THREAT
APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM S CNTRL GA NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SC. BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...LOW LEVEL
FORCING/CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE WEAK. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH AL SHOULD PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
DESTABILIZES. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT
IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR SMALL
CLUSTERS.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

34117942 33387986 32658030 32258111 33098232 34528037 

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