[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201634 
MOZ000-ARZ000-201830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201634Z - 201830Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL AND SRN MO INTO NRN
AR. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS MORNING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN KS
WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER W CNTRL MO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
THROUGH SWRN MO INTO WRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM
THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY. SURFACE HEATING...LOW
LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AND MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM SECTOR MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NRN AR
AND SERN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SRN MO AND NRN AR
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD OVER
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS. A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS THE
BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

35679281 36959304 38519316 38819163 37848994 36389064
35529179 

WWWW