[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Oct 5 00:21:48 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 050021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050020 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-050215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL IA...E-CENTRAL
THROUGH S-CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 830...

VALID 050020Z - 050215Z

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR EAU SWWD ACROSS
SUX/GRI REGIONS TO NEAR GLD.  MINOR SHIFTS IN FRONTAL POSITION ARE
LIKELY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS -- LOCALLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER OVERALL FRONTAL ALIGNMENT AND LOCATION SHOULD
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL PASSAGE OF SYNOPTIC LOW LATER TONIGHT. 
WARM SECTOR MUCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE FULLY DECOUPLED.  ELEVATED MUCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD CHARACTERIZE AIR MASS JUST N OF FRONT AND AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

SEVERAL ESTIMATES OF 52 KT WIND AND UP TO 1.75 INCH HAIL HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED WITHIN THIS WW.  EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE
MARGINAL AND HAIL BASED OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASES N OF FRONT...OVER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WARM-SECTOR
SBCAPE DIMINISHES DUE TO SLOW DIABATIC COOLING. 
STILL...STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN SW-NE PLUME ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR...EXPECIALLY NERN NEB/NWRN IA...WITH INTERMITTENT HAIL
POSSIBLE.  00Z OAX RAOB STILL SHOWS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND ENLARGED
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SEVERE...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 175 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH 250 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

39989825 39950052 43489592 43479345 

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