[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Oct 5 03:14:28 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 050313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050313 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEB...PORTIONS NWRN IA...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 830...

VALID 050313Z - 050445Z

PRIND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS BUT WILL BE MARGINAL OVER WW AREA IN
S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN NEB AND NWRN IA...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
SFC FRONTAL ZONE.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT REMAINING
QUASISTATIONARY FROM SERN MN SWWD...BECOMING NEBULOUS THROUGH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT COVERS MUCH OF NERN IA IN WW 830.  FRONT
THEN BECOMES SHARPLY DEFINED AGAIN FROM NEAR SUX SWWD ACROSS GRI
AREA.  FARTHER SW NEAR GLD...SRN EDGE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW IS
SURGING SEWD AS INTENSE COLD FRONT...A TREND THAT WILL SHIFT EWD
WITH TIME AS CO CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD TONIGHT.

STRONG BAND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- AND CONCURRENT LINE OF ELEVATED
TSTMS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB THROUGH NEXT FEW
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING OVER VERY
BROAD AREA OF NEB AND POSSIBLY SRN SD -- N OF SFC FRONT AND E OF
ELEVATED TSTM BAND.  THIS AREA IS IN ZONE OF INTENSE/ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL WAA.  BROAD/50-60 KT LLJ EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA ACROSS
MUCH OF NEB AHEAD OF WRN CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD ISENTROPICALLY LIFT
PARCELS TO LFC AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GREATLY THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z.  ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG JUST N
OF FRONT TO AROUND 200-500 J/KG INVOF CENTRAL PORTION NEB/SD
BORDER...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEARS RELATED TO APPROACH OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

39989822 39890025 39790128 39940185 40890206 42030169
43290104 43949905 43849748 43429532 43449357 

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