[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042359 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/ERN MT AND NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 042359Z - 050430Z

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INVOF WY BIG HORN MOUNTAINS/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE MT THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT/FAR NE WY INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH
06Z.

DEEP E/NE UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES -- PER BILLINGS WSR-88D VAD AND RUC
SOUNDINGS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY WET SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING NEAR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS OF NE WY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE
MT. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON NW PERIPHERY OF
PROGRESSIVELY STACKED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG UVVS WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONE. THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY
TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES/MILD GROUND TEMPS WILL KEEP
LIQUID-SNOW EQUIVALENTS LOW AND TEND TO INHIBIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
NEVERTHELESS WITH PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES/DYNAMIC
COOLING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LATEST SREF/RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AROUND/SUB-32F BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD NEWD
INTO THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH 06Z...WITH HEAVY WET SNOW
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

45070823 45690908 46570915 48010500 48130335 46260183
44260300 43720461 43550685 44450743 44650767 

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