[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042343 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...EXTREME W-CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042343Z - 050145Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE N OF MN/IA BORDER AND N
OF WW 830...MOST INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY DENSE
CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SRN MN AND PORTIONS WRN WI.  THREAT
APPEARS MARGINAL AND SHORT LIVED ENOUGH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG/QUASISTATIONARY AND WAVY FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM GRB AREA WWD NEAR EAU THEN SWWD ACROSS SUX
AREA...NEAR GRI AND GLD.  FRONT MAY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THIS AREA FROM
AUGMENTATION BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...HOWEVER LITTLE OVERALL MOTION
IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY FAR TO THE SW
OVER CO.  CONVECTION WITH HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG BOTH
SIDES OF FRONT...AND STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE S OF FRONT WHERE
SFC-BASED BUOYANT PARCELS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP -- 6.5-7
DEG C/KM -- BUOYANT LAYER IS DEEP.  SFC DEW POINTS IN 70S IN INFLOW
LAYER AIR MASS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.  VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300
J/KG ALONG FRONT GRADING DOWN TO 100 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR.  AS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE DENSE...STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR SRN
EDGE OF MCS WHERE LLJ PROVIDES RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED INFLOW.

REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THIS
REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

44189184 43629289 43499354 43529584 43619599 44099548
44859358 45399227 44889162 

WWWW