[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042028 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WI/FAR NE IA/SE MN/UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042028Z - 042230Z

A MARGINAL BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS SE MN..FAR NE IA...CNTRL WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.
ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS NEW STORMS
INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE BOUNDARY. ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTS. ROTATING CELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION
TO A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL.

..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46148941 46628790 46608705 46298645 45918616 45338648
44688790 43749003 43259117 43239209 43589273 44259268
45169162 45419083 

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