[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021833 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL AND SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021833Z - 022030Z

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ATOP UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIR MASS. LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH.

STORMS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NNEWD FROM PIA TOWARD RFD THIS AFTERNOON
AS WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WAS DUE
TO A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF DECAYING MCS OVER NERN MO...AND WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL IL...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MESOSCALE LIFT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY AND PERSISTENCE OF STORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED IN VWP AND PROFILER DATA FROM NRN
MO INTO ERN IA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD
STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR IF THESE FASTER
WINDS DEVELOP EAST. AT PRESENT...DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR STORMS
WITH SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 10/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

42329029 43429054 44079004 42588858 40848764 40098766
40078911 40389009 40479022 41349010 41739016 

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