[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 012304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012304 
KSZ000-OKZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN OK/S CENTRAL AND SERN
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 828...

VALID 012304Z - 020030Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.

THOUGH THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES...STORM COVERAGE
REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ATTM IN AND NEAR WW AREA.  STORM NOW MOVING
ACROSS NERN CHAUTAUQUA CO KS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LOSING ITS SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  WITH THIS STORM MOVING
SLOWLY INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO
LIFT NNEWD/AWAY FROM THE REGION...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION AND
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF WW -- SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ALSO AID IN AN INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 10/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37149829 37609578 37119531 36539588 36119827 

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