[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 1 20:55:47 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 012053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012053 
OKZ000-KSZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK / FAR SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012053Z - 012230Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER N
CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND A SMALL AREA
COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

AIR MASS IS RECOVERING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO WEAKENING CAP.
MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN
GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER LMN AND PRC PROFILERS...ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENT IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE GIVEN
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT
STRONG...MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST
ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

..JEWELL.. 10/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37599541 37379482 36429475 35799493 35589564 35539665
35469785 35429852 35789869 36449841 37089777 

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