[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010615 
OKZ000-TXZ000-010815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826...827...

VALID 010615Z - 010815Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826 WILL EXPIRE AT 07Z. MUCH OF THE
STRONGER STORMS NOW OVER W CNTRL OK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING
EWD INTO WW 827 AFTER 07Z. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING IN NWRN TX
AND REMAINING PARTS OF W CNTRL OK MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR NEXT
FEW HOURS.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX.
STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WRN AND SWRN
PORTION OF THE MCS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FEED OF HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AIR AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE STORMS ARE MOSTLY
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...35-50 KT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AND
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE OK MESONET. A 50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL
JET IS SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH BACKBUILDING LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS
FROM NWRN TX INTO W CNTRL OK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY
HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN FROM SW-NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN TX.

..DIAL.. 10/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

34819655 33589793 32749968 32740042 33050047 33749945
34769919 36129931 36879849 36819652 35749608 

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