[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010351 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-010515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 826...827...

VALID 010351Z - 010515Z

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 826 AND 827. 
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN
OK SSWWD INTO WRN N TX.  AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER FAR NERN PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS TO LIKEWISE SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.

HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER ERN OK/NERN TX SUGGESTS THAT THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OK/N
TX.

WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...STORMS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS
ORGANIZED ON THE STORM SCALE.  STORM WITH MOST PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS IS NOW OVER CLAY COUNTY TX...AND THIS STORM REMAINS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS  -- AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO.  ELSEWHERE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
HAIL...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 10/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

36450033 37039760 36909640 34159577 33279772 32999967
33080054 34839980