[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291256 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-291500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NC TO SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291256Z - 291500Z

AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIALLY BY MID MORNING...
FROM SWRN/SRN VA SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NC AND MUCH OF SC.

LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A DECREASING TREND IN
OVERALL CG LIGHTNING ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN.  HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
OF CONCERN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT.

STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK ATTM...THUS SUPPORTING THE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING COVERAGE...12Z GSO SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR SURFACE
CONDITIONS OVER SC RESULTS IN SBCAPE UP TO 1400 J/KG WITH VERY
LITTLE CIN.  DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING PER CLOUDINESS...SMALL
RISES IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE VALUES PER ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.

..PETERS.. 11/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

34058235 35548198 37008144 37378029 37017905 35577908
33897956 33078043 33248175 33748231 

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