[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291050 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-291215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SC / GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291050Z - 291215Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY. IF THIS OCCURS...A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR 68-72 F. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPE EXISTS WITH LITTLE
CIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN GA / NRN FL WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALONG DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND WITH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ASCENT LIFTING N OF THE AREA...EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP RELATIVELY
STRONG CORES WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT ROTATION AND COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2. GREATEST
THREAT FOR EITHER DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO WOULD BE WITHIN
SURFACE THETA-E AXIS.

..JEWELL.. 11/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30778436 32098366 33258318 34008214 34608102 34538005
33827977 32708075 31738122 30128141 30258302 30338428 

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