[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291909 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...NC...VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291909Z - 292115Z

AREAS EAST OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN VA
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO IF STORM INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

A NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM
30W GSO TO 10N CAE. MEANWHILE...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION WAS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA THROUGH EVENING.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN ABOUT 500 J/KG MLCAPE
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING FORCING
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KT ARE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MIGHT SUPPORT A GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EAST FROM THE PIEDMONT AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST VWP DATA WAS DEPICTING MODEST SELY SFC
FLOW TOPPED BY 50KT SLY FLOW AT 1KM. RESULTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MESOCYCLONES. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
NEAR THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND SHORT-LIVED
MESOCYCLONES WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 11/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

33798128 35388094 37518021 38937859 38297756 36937638
35407550 34507673 32708018 32778111 

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