[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 291048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291048 
FLZ000-291245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF THE WRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291048Z - 291245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS...NOW OVER
THE ERN GULF...CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN FL COAST THIS
MORNING.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF LOOP CURRENT HAVE BEEN
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MAINTAINING STRONG INSTABILITY.  35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN
THIS AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES/SUPERCELLS PER
REGIONAL RADAR DATA.  AIR MASS ALONG THE COAST OF WRN FL IS MOIST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.  HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY PER WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
INLAND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED...AND THUS
LIKELY PRECLUDE AN INLAND SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 11/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29228345 29498335 29588288 29098243 28398220 27818218
26938175 26308158 26128202 27168280 28168322 

WWWW