[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 27 19:40:09 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 271938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271937 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SW NEB

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 271937Z - 272330Z

A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS WRN KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES
DEVELOPING AMIDST BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEEPENING 985 MB SFC LOW AT 19Z. ON NW PERIPHERY OF
CYCLONE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600-800 MB/ IN PROXIMITY OF WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /INCLUDING PLENTIFUL CG LIGHTNING CNTRL KS
INTO SCNTRL NEB/ WILL LEAD TO EWD TRANSITION OF WELL ORGANIZED
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ACROSS SW NEB/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE AKRON CO/GOODLAND KS
AREAS AS OF 18Z-19Z. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC PRECIP
TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF NW KS/SW NEB THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSET OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE IN LOCALES
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...INCLUDING THE MCCOOK
NEB/HILL CITY KS AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SNOW RATES...RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER AND
GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA ALREADY DEPICTING N/NE WINDS OF 50 KTS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE /750M-2 KM LAYER/...A TREND THE 18Z RUC
SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 60+ KTS BY 00Z. THESE INCREASINGLY
STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

..GUYER.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

38770208 39260221 40120222 40790189 41210100 41080029
40519984 39799972 38979961 38649990 38320038 38150086
38380174 

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