[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 27 18:01:03 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 271758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271758 
OKZ000-KSZ000-272000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS INTO N CENTRAL AND
NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271758Z - 272000Z

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM PARTS OF THE NERN QUARTER OF OK
INTO SERN KS FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF P28 CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
STRONG DYNAMICS MOVE INTO W TX INTO WRN OK.  AT 16Z...SURFACE
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU JUST SW OF ICT...PNC...BETWEEN OKC
AND SNL TO GLE.  VERY STRONG SWLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE DRYLINE
INDICATES DRYLINE BULGE WILL PRESS NEWD TOWARDS THE TUL
AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING NWD AROUND CNU.  VERY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS SLY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AT 45-50 KT AND EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPR LEVEL JET OF 115 KT/150 KT RESPECTIVELY...IS NOW INTO SWRN
OK.  THUS...STRONG DYNAMICS/FRONTAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
ENHANCED ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF ADVANCING DRYLINE BULGE FOR RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING BROKEN SQUALL LINE. GIVEN AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE LAYER HELICITY NEAR 250 M2/S2 OVER NERN OK AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO
-4...ISOLATED SHALLOW SUPERCELLS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

35629700 35859700 36139699 36719712 37099731 37329754
37719761 38039686 38149631 37999572 37549525 36949501
36219508 35869522 35449563 35299593 35289634 35319660
35439683 

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