[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 27 19:51:09 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 271948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271948 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX INTO WRN AR AND NWRN LA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271948Z - 272145Z

WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES STRONG ASCENT NOW
OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM CENTRAL OK
INTO CENTRAL TX.  THERE IS A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS
FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
AXIS COINCIDING WITH 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET.  IN ADDITION...BAND OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS NEWD FROM MAF - S CENTRAL OK
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 100-115 KT MID LEVEL JET.  THUS...STRONG JET
COUPLING...IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT OVER THIS REGION. AIR MASS IS ALSO DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH CORRESPONDING MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.

EXPECT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL OK SWD/SWWD INTO NERN TX IN AREA OF
STRONG CONVERGENCE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  GIVEN INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITHIN/AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES FROM ERN OK/NERN TX INTO WRN
AR/NWRN LA.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32599635 33429604 34269584 34929584 35619588 35889592
36309562 36369470 36189369 35579360 34839346 34269346
33599357 32899387 32279451 31709558 31429673 31689680
32099655 

WWWW