[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 270933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270932 
FLZ000-ALZ000-271130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270932Z - 271130Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH
12-13Z...IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD
BE FOR TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL...TO THE NORTH OF MOB...SWD TO OFFSHORE NEAR
65 ESE BVE.  RADAR DATA SHOWED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS
EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH LINE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
EAST AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACKING NEWD.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO INDICATED A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER INLAND REGIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WHERE THE ONGOING
LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INGEST A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING NEAR MOB AND OFFSHORE MAY BE INDICATIVE
OF THIS SCENARIO.

IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CAN MOVE ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH NWD
EXTENT AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS.

..PETERS.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

30278772 30588768 30688741 30768696 30698639 30368633
30098636 29968648 30138753