[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 270211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270211 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-270415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH COASTAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270211Z - 270415Z

A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST/TORNADO IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER SERN LA AND SPREADING INTO COASTAL MS.
THE THREAT/COVERAGE APPEARS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS SERN LA IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS.
THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 20 KT. EAST OF THE LINE A FEW STORMS
WITH MORE DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUE LIFTING NWD. MOST OF THE
STORMS ARE N OF A WARM FRONT WHERE A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER
EXISTS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY
STRONG ALONG THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS ARE PROBABLY NOT REALIZING THE SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STABLE LAYER. MOREOVER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED. STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.

..DIAL.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

29779006 30359002 30798926 30658842 29898830 29738886
29288974 

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