[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Nov 26 20:27:46 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 262025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262025 
LAZ000-MSZ000-262230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA -- PRIMARILY S OF I-10

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 874...

VALID 262025Z - 262230Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG/E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.  THIS LINE AT 20Z
EXTENDED FROM LCH AREA TO APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF COASTAL CENTRAL
CAMERON PARISH...THEN SWWD OFFSHORE UPPER TX COAST.  THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL PARISHES.  BRIEF TORNADOES AND
STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND
ACCOMPANYING MESOCYCLONES.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 FROM NW ARA TO
NEAR MSY.  SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S AND MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO
ITS S WILL OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD
250-750 J/KG MLCAPES OVER LAND.  EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING N
ACROSS SERN LA AND COASTAL MS AREAS DURING REMAINDER
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY INLAND. 
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- PRIMARILY OVER
GULF...THEN MOVING NNEWD ONSHORE.  0-1 KM SRH 300-350 J/KG IS
EVIDENT OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LA BETWEEN MCS BAND AND HUM...AIDED BY
BACKED FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS SERN LA...THEY SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENTS APCH AREA.  THEREFORE PORTIONS SERN LA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29439293 29909302 30129319 30289224 30559074 30288980
30078922 28888922 29169204 28869305 29039300 29219297 

WWWW