[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 27 08:20:29 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 270818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270818 
WIZ000-MNZ000-271215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN-NRN WI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 270818Z - 271215Z

FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI.  DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD
RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY
LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING.  RAPID AND WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA
SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION.  SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z.  HOWEVER...PRIOR
TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADS NWD.

..PETERS.. 11/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988
45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392
44409591 

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