[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Nov 25 01:11:01 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 250109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250108 
NYZ000-250715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY IN NWRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 250108Z - 250715Z

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND MAY INTENSIFY AS WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DROPPING
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY GIVEN SURFACE FLOW OF 20-40 KTS COMING OFF THE LAKE.

DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS FORMED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN
PART DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE FETCH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LAKE HURON. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARDS GEORGIAN
BAY. RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A BIT AS THIS
TROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW APPROACH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AS
RADAR SHOWS MAIN BAND LIFTING NWD ACROSS OSWEGO INTO SRN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES AS OF 01Z. 

AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED. DIURNAL LAND BREEZE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT AS
WELL...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY NWD AFFECTING PRIMARILY JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z. AFTER 06Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING THE BAND BACK S
PREDOMINATELY INTO OSWEGO AND SRN LEWIS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44307624 44337586 44317573 44057520 43737512 43417514
43357562 43417617 43447652 43547769 43697824 43957802
44187679 

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