[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 24 17:16:21 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 241714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241714 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-242315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY

CONCERNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRENDS 

VALID 241714Z - 242315Z

HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SWRN MI. FARTHER SE
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MOSTLY SHOWERY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WITH HEAVIEST INTO FAR SWRN NY
DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO INCREASING OVER NWRN PA LATE. IN
ADDITION...ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
FROM LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOWARDS 00Z.

VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD WITH MOST RAPID COOLING
NOW COMING INTO LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AREAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HVY SNOW OVER NERN OH AND
NWRN PA...WIND FIELDS ARE DIVERGENT AT MIDDAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING
FOR DISORGANIZATION AND SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER
N INTO THE BUFFALO AREA BUT WILL BE HEAVIER DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE
MOIST FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO. THIS ENTIRE REGION SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE ORIENTED ALONG LONG AXIS OF LOWER
LAKES...AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF HVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE
ONTARIO NEAR 00Z AFFECTING OSWEGO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN
NY.

INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ORGANIZED BANDS WILL PERSIST OVER NRN
LOWER AND CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DESPITE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE E SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS.

..JEWELL.. 11/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

41018097 41517898 42097789 42387630 43357535 44317556
44178075 44868310 46398493 47168594 46828754 46228766
44388649 43468646 42398642 42178593 41958531 42908504
43208505 43808495 43308370 42878107 42528062 42198166
41608249 41258224 

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