[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Nov 25 02:45:03 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 250242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250242 
NYZ000-PAZ000-250845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 250242Z - 250845Z

SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.

ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.

..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...

42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025 

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