[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 24 16:30:11 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 241628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241627 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 241627Z - 242030Z

HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM MA...EXTREME S-CENTRAL NY
AND SRN PORTIONS VT/NH THROUGH 21Z.  2 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN 75-90 NM S OF CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS VT/NH AND NWRN
MAINE. RATES LOCALLY MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY OVER S
FACING SLOPES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT INTERCEPT OPTIMAL OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT AMIDST 35-50 KT LLJ.  HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OVER ERN
NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND INLAND PORTIONS CT/RI DURING
PERIOD.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN MA INVOF
BOS...MARINE FRONT NEWD ALONG COAST TO NWRN BAY OF FUNDY AND INTO
SERN NEW BRUNSWICK...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SSEWD PAST CAPE COD OVER
ATLANTIC...AND QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
SRN CT INTO SERN NY.  SFC FREEZE LINE IS PACKED WITHIN COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES OF MAINE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE.  MODIFIED RAOBS
AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER MOST OF
VT...CENTRAL/NRN NH AND NWRN MAINE WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING...BUT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOW LEVELS.  EXPECT INTENSE LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP -- AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE NW-NE OF SFC LOW AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALONG
COASTAL FRONT. VEERING OF 850 MB FLOW WITH TIME WILL INDICATE SHIFT
OF STRONGEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL EWD FROM VT INTO NWRN
MAINE...WHILE STRONG ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

46517000 46286930 45666861 45006847 44736914 44506975
44187039 43497125 43317152 43597228 44097288 44787302
45017300 45007151 45137142 45227142 45307125 45247116
45357098 45217087 45387079 45427080 45427075 45387063
45427063 45487072 45607062 45737036 45807040 45927024
45957023 45977032 46077030 46147023 46217027 46357021 

WWWW