[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 24 12:42:37 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 241239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241238 
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-241845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN
IND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 241238Z - 241845Z

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE
BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND
CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL.  HERE...A
FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD
ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION
HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM.  

GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN
LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.  FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY
SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER
FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS
ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN
LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL
MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

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