[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 22 13:04:12 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 221302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221301 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR WRN MA...VT...NH...WRN/NRN ME

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 221301Z - 221800Z

HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN ADIRONDACK AND
CATSKILL MTNS OF ERN NY THROUGH 16Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
FALLING FROM 2000 FT TO AROUND 5O0 FT BY 18Z. FURTHER EAST...HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER VT/NRN NH AND THE BERKSHIRE MTNS OF FAR
NWRN MA BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 FT
IN WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA BY 18Z. TOTAL DURATION OF HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 4 HRS IN THE CATSKILL MTNS...BUT COULD BE
FROM 6-8 HRS IN THE ADIRONDACK...WHITE/GREEN AND BERKSHIRE MTNS. HVY
SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
/ABOVE 1500 FT/ OF NRN/WRN ME. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY GREATER
THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM AND
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN SERN VA NNEWD INTO NRN VT. MODEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALLOWING FOR
A FOCUSED 30-50 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION WERE
AROUND 2500 FT BASED ON 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z REGIONAL
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z CAR AND ALB SOUNDINGS.

TWO FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH NEWD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AT 12Z WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
THUS...DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
FACTOR ALLOWING FOR SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS MORNING. WITH
TIME...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE
DRAMATIC LOWERING IN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN NJ WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING
THE MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER ERN NY AND WRN/NRN VT. 
ADDITIONALLY...A GRADUAL REORIENTATION TO NORTH-SOUTH OF THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE LONGEST DURATION /6-8 HRS/ OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE IN A NARROW ZONE /50 MILES WIDE/ OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA AND ECENTRAL NY THROUGH 19Z.

..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

47416920 46706930 45716972 44437079 43407201 42297316
42097417 42107523 42427568 43097520 44017432 44617385
45077337 45097157 45957025 46776992 

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