[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 21 20:51:19 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 212049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212049 
NCZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873...

VALID 212049Z - 212215Z

CONTINUE WW.

STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE ALONG COASTAL FRONT...WHICH HAS
FORMED A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  WARM
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
...JUST NOW ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...IS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
IT PROGRESSES NORTH OF MOREHEAD CITY INTO THE OUTER BANKS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

IF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS DO OCCUR...SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM
SECTOR WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADIC/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 11/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

34297789 35097786 35697700 36167638 36427581 

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