[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 22 18:22:48 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 221821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221820 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY / VT AND WRN NH / WRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 221820Z - 222245Z

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR ARE LIKELY.

TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY NEWD...WITH N-S BAND OF DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING
UP OVER VT. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION/BACKING SURFACE WINDS WILL
HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN CHAMPLAIN AND
HUDSON VALLEYS AND INTO VT AND WRN MA...WHERE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 18Z
INDICATE 0.10-0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES ARE
POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING 1 IN/HR WET SNOW RATES.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS...THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF HEAVY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND SNOW WILL BE MOST
PROLONGED.

..JEWELL.. 11/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

45047142 43217218 42107312 42157353 43577386 45007376 

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