[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211515 
NCZ000-SCZ000-211715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211515Z - 211715Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.

SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON.  AS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG COASTAL FRONT.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NEAR/ACROSS CAPE FEAR INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY VICINITY BY
18Z...THEN ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND/OUTER BANKS AREAS BY AROUND 21Z.

WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER INLAND AREAS...WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR...EAST NORTHEAST OF LOW
CENTER...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS.  IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP
FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO EXISTS...ALONG
WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS LARGE/HAIL.

..KERR.. 11/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

34097865 34487774 34897720 35707617 35887555 35567515
35007520 34187642 33707746 33497804 33487844 33787865 

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