[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161733 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-161900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM SERN NY SWD INTO DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161733Z - 161900Z

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN FROM SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN
PA...NJ...DE...CNTRL/ERN MD AND NRN VA.

MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL NY SWD ACROSS CNTRL PA AND WRN VA.  A NARROW
BAND OF CONVECTION EXISTS 40-50 MILES EAST OF THE FRONT AND SEEMS TO
BE INTENSIFYING BASED ON COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER VSBL SATL IMAGERY. 
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE GRADUALLY STEEPENING AHEAD OF THIS BAND
WHERE BINOVC HAVE BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  

SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPER LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE AFTN...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL RAINBAND.  COMBINATION OF
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED UVV WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN.  STRONG WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS TO DEVELOP AND
ISOLD-SCT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

38547775 39757671 41257580 41357474 41167341 38567491
38397633 

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