[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 16 15:47:48 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 161544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161544 
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 161544Z - 161715Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
EXTREME NERN PA...ERN NY AND WRN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO UPPER
LOW WAS SHIFTING QUICKLY NEWD INTO QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING. 
BUT...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORCING WAS GRAZING PARTS OF THE AREA. 
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
CNTRL NY SWD INTO CNTRL PA THAT HAVE SHOWN A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THIS ENHANCED UVV MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.  

VSBL SATL SHOWS SOME BINOVC ACROSS MAINLY ERN NY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTN
OWING TO HEATING.  THUS...THE BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FURTHER
INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVES INTO ERN NY IN A FEW HOURS. 
STRONG WSWLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WIND COULD ENCOURAGE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF A ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAIN
NEGATIVE WILL BE THE OVERALL LIMITED DEEP FORCING THAT IS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED IN A WELL-DEFINED NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND THAT
PRODUCES DAMAGING WIND.  BUT...GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE NON-ZERO.

..RACY.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

41437576 44937464 44997308 44027307 43137321 42317301
41267374 

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