[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Nov 17 00:13:35 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 170011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170011 
MIZ000-170615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 170011Z - 170615Z

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OF THE
SEASON...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO/MONTMORENCY COUNTIES IN NRN LOWER MI. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO
NNW...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
SNOWBAND BUT ULTIMATELY DISRUPT ORIENTATION. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE 18Z/21Z RUC AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE BANDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
TO AREAS SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY LATER THIS EVENING. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ONGOING
STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY THU MORNING.

..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 11/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

44088550 44138623 45178631 45428445 45168371 44488383 

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