[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161038 
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-161245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA/ERN WV
PANHANDLE...PARTS OF MD...AND NRN AND WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161038Z - 161245Z

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/ERN WV AND FAR
SWRN VA ATTM.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED...THOUGH NEED FOR ISSUANCE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- DEVOID OF CG LIGHTNING FROM CENTRAL
WV NWD -- CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM.
 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW NEUTRAL TO
MINIMALLY-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT...ABOVE A SLIGHTLY-STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THOUGH FORCING MECHANISM REMAINS UNCLEAR AS CONVECTIVE LINE
REMAINS WELL AHEAD OF FRONT -- AND POORLY-SIMULATED BY ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN A SEMI-ORGANIZED
LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT.

WITH 60-PLUS KT FLOW INDICATED AT 850 MB ACROSS THIS
REGION...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE THE SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S.  HOWEVER UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED
ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THIS SLIGHTLY-LESS-STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
FACILITATE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE.  THOUGH THIS
APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO ATTM...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS SCENARIO AND POSSIBLE NEED FOR WW WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..GOSS.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX...

41967838 43247789 43287622 42027585 40287636 37337791
36957943 37038055 38058023 39537855 

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