[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 16 08:06:04 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 160804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160803 
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WV/WRN VA/FAR ERN TN/WRN NC/WRN SC/NRN AND CENTRAL
GA/ERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160803Z - 161000Z

SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED/LOCAL...BUT MAY PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTIVE LINE PROGRESSES EWD.  NEW WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD
ACROSS AL AND THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM...THOUGH RADAR AND
LIGHTNING IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME.
 THIS IS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY
FROM SRN AL NNEWD WHERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS. 

DESPITE THIS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA -- AHEAD OF LARGE/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. 
THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN STRONGER SEGMENTS ALONG
CONVECTIVE LINE.

..GOSS.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX...

33008576 37688232 39478049 39457926 38877850 34388213
33228363 

WWWW