[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 160530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160530 
MIZ000-WIZ000-160930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE WI/UPPER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 160530Z - 160930Z

MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE SPREADING N/NE ACROSS FAR NE
WI/UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HINDERED BY 
MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE
COMMON...WITH 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS.

00Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS/SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PROGRESSIVELY
STACKED/CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR ERN WI/LAKE MI. AS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SURGING DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS CYCLONE IS SERVING TO INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH CG LIGHTNING HAVING DISTINCTLY INCREASED OVER THE
PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS THE ERN MI U.P. AND LAKE MI. 

RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED BAND OF SNOW HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR OSHKOSH
NWD TO THE RHINELANDER/IRON MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH
DYNAMIC COOLING/SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PRECIP RATES PROMOTING SNOW
PRECIP-TYPE. COINCIDENT WITH NEWD TRACK OF CYCLONE...THIS BAND OF
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION N/NE ACROSS FAR NE WI/UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER/MODEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORE INTENSE N-S ORIENTED BANDS...ESPECIALLY AS
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY FURTHERS TENDENCY FOR MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENT.

..GUYER.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

46788751 46278689 45488758 44498811 44778901 45328905
45708923 46058928 47128868 

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