[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Nov 16 05:10:21 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 160507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160507 
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/TN...NRN/CNTRL/SWRN AL...SERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...872...

VALID 160507Z - 160600Z

EXTENSIVE PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND TRAILS SSWWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MS
DELTA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN CG ELECTRICAL
ACTIVITY WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A STEADY DECLINE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE LINE OF FORCING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS STORMS IN
WATCH 872 MOVE ACROSS THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...REMAIN VERY INTENSE ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY.

FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WATCH 871...WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL
STABILIZATION WERE CONTRIBUTING TO A DEMISE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THESE AREAS. STRONG GUSTS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THE SQUALL LINE BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

..CARBIN.. 11/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

31168792 31148918 32968758 35018565 36028501 38168370
38218199 35028407 34968548 33208559 