[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 152117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152117 
MSZ000-LAZ000-152245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LA AND SWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 867...

VALID 152117Z - 152245Z

THE MAJORITY OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED N OF THE REGION
THIS AFTN.  BUT...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE EJECTING NEWD
FROM THE UPPER TX COAST...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS.  LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL LA NEWD INTO CNTRL MS.  TSTMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM THE MS DELTA SWWD TO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WITH OTHER STORMS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL
LA INTO ECNTRL TX.  GIVEN THE VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...HELICITY HAS RELAXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
THE TORNADO WATCH.  BUT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN AN OTHERWISE DOMINANT LINE
SEGMENT ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES WILL
EXIST ACROSS NERN LA/SWRN MS NEWD INTO THE TN/OH VLYS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

..RACY.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

30519363 32849245 32808948 31089069 30469188 

WWWW