[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 15 19:35:40 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151932 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH...NWRN
KY...NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151932Z - 152100Z

THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE OH
VLY REGION FROM SRN IL/NWRN TN EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IND... WCNTRL/SWRN
OH AND NWRN KY.  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WWS
865/866 BY 21Z.

A 999 MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF KSTL AT 19Z.  THE WARM FRONT HAS
JUMPED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND IS MOVING INTO WCNTRL OH
ATTM.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF
THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING NWD INTO THE OH/TN
VLYS.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VLY. 

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFIED FROM SRN IL INTO WRN TN AS IT
MOVED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
NOTED. OVERLAY OF 18Z RAOB DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
STRONGEST CROSS-OVER BETWEEN SLY H85 WINDS AND THE WSWLY H5 WINDS
EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY/SWRN OH AT MID-AFTN.  LATEST VWP FROM
PAH/EVANSVILLE/WILMINGTON OHIO SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES /0-1KM SHEAR 35+ KTS/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS
WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW/PRESSURE FALL AXIS.  DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND MIXED MODES OF LINE SEGMENTS/ DISCRETE CELLS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN IND...NWRN KY...WRN TN AND
SWRN/WCNTRL OH WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

38558996 40028708 40408473 40348310 39938280 39028337
37958471 35918786 35958934 37258918 