[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151930 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/IA/EXTREME WRN WI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 151930Z - 160030Z

...AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS SERN MN/WRN WI LATE THIS
AFTN...

SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z INDICATES SFC LOW JUST WEST OF STL WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD TO NEAR DSM/MWM/DTL. WARM FRONT IS
MOVING NWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. VERY STRONG
MID LEVEL JET NOW ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
100 KT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NRN IL/LAKE MI TONIGHT. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS /NEAR 1-2 MB
PER HOUR/ ARE NOTED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL.  

ALTHOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW /PER
LATEST 850MB TEMPERATURES/ A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AT THE SFC WILL
PROMOTE RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE ETA SUGGEST RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE TWIN CITIES
SWD TO RST/ALO BETWEEN 21-23Z. SNOW MAY BEGIN EARLIER AT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS /IE MS RIVER BLUFFS/ OWING TO THE SHALLOW WARM
LAYER. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 16/00Z...SNOW RATES INITIALLY WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH PER HOUR.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
PORTIONS OF WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

..TAYLOR.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

45219647 40599588 40569307 41939148 42889099 43739113
44579158 45109242 45299299 

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