[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 15 18:37:31 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151834 
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...ECNTRL/SERN
MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865...866...

VALID 151834Z - 152030Z

HIGH PROBABILITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST
22Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN.

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO ECNTRL MO AS OF 18Z...JUST W OF KSTL.  THE
WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH A WARM/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER ALL OF SERN
MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INTO CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTN...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING
NWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS SRN
MO AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN.

TSTMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN AR HAVE INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MS VLY AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS.  OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO INTENSIFIED FROM NEAR KSTL
SWWD INTO CNTRL AR ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  

STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EXIST FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA NWD
INTO SERN MO...SRN IL EWD INTO SWRN IND...FAR W KY.  PAH/MEM VWPS
SHOW 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND 0-3KM SRH OF 300-500
M2/S2...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TORNADOES.  GIVEN THE
EVOLUTION INTO DISCRETE CELLS NOTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL
EXIST FROM ALONG THE MS RVR FROM MEMPHIS NWD INTO SRN IL...THEN EWD
INTO SRN IND...FAR W KY AND WRN TN THROUGH 22Z.

FARTHER W AND S...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EWD.  THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE RELAXED SOMEWHAT OWING TO A
WEAKENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS.  BUT...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT LINES WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR ALONG THE
FRONT.

..RACY.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

34079329 36589165 38039111 39119099 40158957 40298803
39578700 38528638 36138747 33358907 33209156 

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