[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 15 16:15:38 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151613 
INZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN TX...AR...SRN
MO...EXTREME SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865...

VALID 151613Z - 151815Z

TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  GREATEST RISK FOR
TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL EXIST IN A
REGION BOUNDED BY A LITTLE ROCK AR-VICHY MO-SALEM IL-EVANSVILLE
IND-CROSSVILLE TN LINE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTN.

STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS EXIST FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL
IL.  DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SWRN MO WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD
THESE FALLS THROUGH MID-AFTN.  THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
THE OH VLY WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT N OF THE OH RVR... BUT WAS A
LITTLE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE OZARKS.  AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS
NEWD...THE WARM AIR SHOULD ADVANCE INTO ECNTRL MO-CNTRL IL-CNTRL IND
LINE BY MID-AFTN.

STRONGEST LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE MS DELTA NWD INTO
WRN KY AND CNTRL IND BENEATH INCREASING SWLY FLOW OF 100+ KTS AT H5.
 RESULTANT DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES.  THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF
AR INTO ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN.

PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS...ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AR
AND SRN MO WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITH BOTH DISCRETE AND MIXED
LINEAR-DISCRETE MODES LIKELY TO EXIST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W-E ACROSS SRN MO/AR/NERN TX AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD.

..RACY.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

33099522 34389540 35379446 37319340 38699146 39348842
39068658 36538713 32908832 

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