[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 15 15:33:10 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151531 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151531Z - 151730Z

PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.  ONE OR MORE
WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS KS. DEEPENING SFC LOW WAS OVER SWRN MO AND
SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO WCNTRL IL THIS AFTN.  STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN TX
AND THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE AFTN...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  GIVEN THE DYNAMIC SITUATION AT HAND...SEVERAL MESOSCALE
CONFLUENT BANDS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ONE SUCH BAND
APPEARS TO BE FORMING FROM SWRN-NERN LA...SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-NMM
SOLUTION.  

STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION
THIS AFTN WHERE VERY MOIST/WARM AIR MASS WILL RESIDE. THOUGH
STRONGER UVV SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/MIDWEST... TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTN FARTHER S AND COULD GET A BOOST
FROM A SUBTLE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS SRN TX ATTM.
 VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER W...A LINE OF TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX. THIS LINEAR
MODE WILL CONTAIN EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30409665 32929562 32888859 29429116 29479704 

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