[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 14 21:45:09 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 142143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142142 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861...

VALID 142142Z - 142315Z

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP
QUICKLY NWD THROUGH THE MS VLY...NORTH OF KMEM THEN INTO SRN KY. 
THE COLD WEDGE IN THE OZARKS HAS BEEN A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO SCOUR
ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD DO SO THIS EVENING.

EARLIER BRIEF EPISODE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO
THE TAIL-END OF THE MO MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS TRANSLATING NEWD INTO
THE LWR OH VLY.  BUT...RAPID APPROACH OF A STRONGER JET STREAM
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN TX/ WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL UPSWING IN TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE.  THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK
AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS. 
THUS...WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY FIELDS THIS AFTN...SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33359251 33469305 34229334 34909314 35609201 36399105
36498919 36338886 35658874 34848919 34229021 34029127 

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