[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 14 22:57:57 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 142256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142256 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS....NRN AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142256Z - 150130Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF A TORNADO COULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A SW-NE BAND
FROM SCNTRL MS TO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LINKED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
SPREADING NEWD FROM TX/LA ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE CAPPING
INVERSION IS WEAK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED A MESOSCALE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN AL/NERN MS AND WEAK
ROTATION WAS EVIDENT IN CELLS TRACKING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY A COUPLE OF FACTORS INCLUDING 1)
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND 2) WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON OKO PROFILER AND VWP
DATA IS ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH DISCRETE CELLS...AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS...AND
PASSAGE/DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FORCING...SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WATCH OVER THE AREA.

..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

36318554 33788710 31639015 32349070 36438789 

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