[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141912 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ECNTRL AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141912Z - 142045Z

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS NWRN
MO...WITH SRN-MOST INFLUENCE GRAZING THE OZARKS THIS AFTN.  PRESSURE
FALLS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY HAVE INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE
15Z.  THIS HAS AIDED IN AN ACCELERATION OF THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
HAS SURGED NNEWD INTO CNTRL AR AND WRN TN...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING.  

CU STREETS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT INTO CBS ACROSS SRN AR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.  TSTMS ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED...BUT COULD BEGIN TO
ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S.  IF THIS OCCURS...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT FROM EAST OF LITTLE ROCK TO VCNTY MEMPHIS.  IF TSTMS
STAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED N OF THE WARM FRONT...HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.

..RACY.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

34289295 35249232 35949011 36308924 35768884 35138893
34529005 33779196 

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