[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141816 
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL CO...SRN WY AND NERN UT ABOVE
6000 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 141816Z - 142315Z

HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS UP TO 2 INCHES
WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SRN WY...NERN UT...AND MUCH OF NRN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO SERN ID WILL
MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WY/NERN UT INTO NRN CO THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FROM 3-4
HRS...WHEN STRONG FRONTAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT 
OVERLAYS STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT
REGION OF STRONG/DIGGING MID-UPPER JET MAX NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN
UT/SERN ID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT NLDN DATA CONFIRM THREAT
FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE STRONGEST AND
DEEPEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW THAT WILL TURN NNWLY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL FAVOR WRN/NRN UPSLOPE REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES AND AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SRN WY/NERN UT AND MUCH OF NRN CO AROUND
00Z...AND OVER CENTRAL CO ROCKIES BY 03Z...AS STRONG MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE.

..CROSBIE.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

42380618 42660724 42580849 42011081 41861135 41311147
40411133 40151069 40140931 39170829 38830668 39020568
39570484 41390469 41680505 

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