[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141228 
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141228Z - 141430Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE NOT LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MORNING...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WITHIN ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPPER FEATURE NOW MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX.  

BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX EWD
ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER INTO NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM -- IS PARTICULARLY
STABLE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT N OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
HAIL.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID-LEVEL
ROTATION...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO LESS THAN AN INCH OR SO.  

ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS
STABLE...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STABLE ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN A VERY MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT.  AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. 
HOWEVER...WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LIMITED TO WARM ADVECTION --
AND THUS CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS N OF WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF
WARM-SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM.  WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED/WARM SECTOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

32419610 34799509 35749380 35478989 34368754 32828759
31949356 

WWWW